| Elections in Indiana | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|||||||||||
|
|||||||||||
|
The 2010 congressional elections in Indiana will be held on November 2, 2010 to determine who will represent the state of Indiana in the United States House of Representatives. Representatives are elected for two-year terms; those elected will serve in the 112th Congress from January 2011 until January 2013, except for the winner of the 3rd District's special election, who will serve the few remaining weeks of the 111th Congress.
Indiana has nine seats in the House, apportioned according to the 2000 United States Census.
Contents |
| United States House of Representatives elections in Indiana, 2010[1] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats | +/– | |
| Republican | 972,171 | 55.64% | 6 | +2 | |
| Democratic | 679,462 | 38.89% | 3 | -2 | |
| Other Parties | 95,587 | 5.47% | 0 | — | |
| Totals | 1,747,220 | 100.00% | 9 | — | |
Democrat Pete Visclosky has represented this district since 1985. The PVI is D+8. He will face Republican tea party activist Mark Leyva and Libertarian candidate Jon Morris.[2] Visclosky has been endorsed by the Northwest Indiana Times and the Indianapolis Star.[3][4]
Democrat Joe Donnelly has represented this district since 2007 and is running for reelection. He is being challenged by Republican nominee State Representative Jackie Walorski.[5]
Obama carried this district with 54% of the vote in 2008.[6]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) | Jackie Walorski (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPIC-MRA | October 20-22, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 43% | n/a |
| EPIC-MRA | October 1-3, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 48% | 39% | 7% |
| American Action Forum via South Bend Tribune | August 16–19, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | n/a |
| The Polling Company | July 31-August 3, 2010 | 309 | ± 5.6% | 52% | 35% | 11% |
Republican Mark Souder represented this district from 2003 until his resignation on May 18, 2010. Fellow Republican John McCain carried this district with 56% of the vote in the 2008 presidential elections.[7] In the Republican primary, car dealer Bob Thomas gave Souder a strong challenge in the primary. An April SurveyUSA poll showed Thomas within six percentage points of Souder. Other Republican candidates included attorney Phil Troyer and Tea Party activist Greg Dickman. Souder won the primary with 48% of the vote. He was to face Democrat Fort Wayne councilman Tom Hayhurst.
However, as Souder announced his resignation from Congress and his resignation as the Republican candidate for Congress on May 18, 2010, the Governor of Indiana will set a date for a special election. A caucus will be held to choose the Republican candidate for the Special Election and the General Election. The Special Election is expected to be held concurrently with the General Election in November. The Republican caucus to choose the nominee was held on June 12, 2010. State Senator Marlin Stutzman was selected as the Republican nominee for both the Special, and General Elections.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Mark Souder | Bob Thomas | Phil Troyer | Greg Dickman | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Survey USA (Link) | April 22–26, 2010 | 35% | 29% | 19% | 2% | 16% |
The 2010 special election for Indiana's 3rd congressional district will be held November 2, contemporaneously with the regularly scheduled general election. The special election was called to fill the vacancy left by Republican Mark Souder, who resigned after an affair with a staffer was revealed.[8]
Nominee
Lost Nomination
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marlin Stutzman (R) | Tom Hayhurst (D) | Scott Wise (L) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riggs Research | October 27-28, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 36% | 40% | 3% | n/a |
| SurveyUSA | October 21-25, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 57% | 32% | 7% | 2% |
| American Viewpoint | July 19-20, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 56% | 29% | 2% | n/a |
Republican Steve Buyer isn't running for re-election. McCain carried the district with 56% of the vote. Todd Rokita, the Republican Secretary of State of Indiana, and Republican State Senator Brandt Hershman filed to run. Cheryle Denise Allen and Mark Seitz have also filed to run for the Republican nomination.[11] Rokita won the primary and will face Democrat David Sanders in the general election.[12]
Republican Dan Burton has represented this district since 2003. John McCain carried 59% of the vote in 2008.[13] Former Republican candidate Brose McVey, Indiana Republican Party Executive Director Luke Messer, State Representative Mike Murphy, and 2008 primary challenger John McGoff have all formally announced their intention to run. Burton won the primary with just 30% of the vote. He will face Democrat Tim Crawford in the general election.[14]
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Dan Burton | Luke Messer | Brose McVey | John McGoff | Mike Murphy | Andy Lyons | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies (Link) | March 5, 2010 | 43% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 26% |
Republican Mike Pence has represented this district since 2003. McCain carried the district with 52% of the vote. He will face Democratic nominee Barry Welsh, a minister.[15]
Democrat André Carson has served since 2008. Obama carried this district with 71% of the vote, considered safe or solid by most sources. He again faced perennial Republican candidate Marvin Scott, who took issue with Carson's Muslim faith during the general election.[16] However, Carson defeated Scott to retain his seat.[17]
This is an open seat as Democratic incumbent Brad Ellsworth is running for the U.S. Senate. The Democratic nominee is lawyer and State Representative Trent Van Haaften. The Republican nominee is Larry Bucshon, President of Ohio Valley HeartCare.
In 2008, McCain carried the district with 51% of the vote.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Trent Van Haaften (D) | Larry Bucshon (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | July 21-22, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 27% | 43% | n/a |
| OnMessage | September 13-14, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 20% | 41% | n/a |
Democratic incumbent Baron Hill is being challenged by Republican Todd Young (campaign site, PVS, WhoRunsGov), Libertarian Greg Knott (campaign site, PVS), and Independent Jerry Lucas (campaign site, PVS).
Five-term Congressman Democrat Baron Hill has won in the ninth district since 1998, except for in 2004, when he lost to Republican Mike Sodrel by 1,425 votes. Hill narrowly regained his seat from Sodrel in 2006 and won another race with Sodrel in 2008 by a wider margin. McCain carried the district with only 50% of the vote. In 2010, Sodrel sought another rematch, but lost to former Marine Captain and Orange County Deputy Prosecutor Todd Young in the Republican primary.[18][19] Independent Jerry Lucas, a nurse and Army veteran, has also filed to run.[20][21] Greg Knott entered the race as the Libertarian Party candidate.
Prior to the campaign season, Hill came under increasing public pressure following the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. At public meetings, Hill had to be escorted by state police for his protection and had heated verbal exchanges with the public which made local news on several occasions and leading Hill to refuse to hold additional public meetings in person.[22]
Hill launched a series of campaign ads beginning in mid August questioning Young's intentions for the future of Social Security and highlighting a comment made by Young referring to it as a "ponzi scheme".[23] Local media covering the debate questioned both candidates about their ads; Hill defended his support of healthcare, stimulus, and new regulatory legislation as the correct votes for the future of the country. Young reconfirmed his position, stating Social Security was indeed a ponzi scheme and needed reform to remain financially viable and called on Hill to explain his financial plans for the nation.[24]
The last week of August, the Young campaign began running adds on radio and television pointing out Hill's record of supporting spending legislation and calling on fiscal restraint in Congress. On the night of August 30, Young's Bloomington campaign headquarters were vandalized; the air conditioner was stolen, the phone and internet lines into the building were cut, the power disconnected.[23] The Young campaign requested that Hill participate in seven town hall style debates.[25] The first scheduled debate will be held October 18 at the Buskirk-Chumley Theater in Bloomington.[26]
In a post-primary June Public Opinion Strategies poll, Hill had a 41-33 lead over Young.[27] An August poll conducted by the Young campaign suggested only 37% of voters believed Hill deserved another term.[24] During the first week of September Real Clear Politics had the race rated as a toss-up.[21]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Baron Hill (D) | Todd Young (R) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 25-26, 2010 | 300 | ±5.7% | 41% | 34% | n/a |
| Public Opinion Strategies | July 26-28, 2010 | 300 | ±4.9% | 42% | 41% | n/a |
| The Hill/ANGA | October 16-19, 2010 | 400 | ±4.9% | 46% | 44% | 9% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | October 24-25, 2010 | n/a | ±5.7% | 37% | 49% | n/a |
| IIndiana's 9th Congressional District Election, 2010[28] | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | |
| Republican | Todd Young | 118,138 | 52.2% | |
| Democratic | Baron Hill | 95,387 | 42.207% | |
| Libertarian | Gregg Knott | 12,377 | 5.4% | |